Bridging community and climate future with data-based planning models

Developing a planning tool for coastal communities addressing the uncertainty climate change as part of his PhD research at the Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, Mauricio Carvallo Aceves (he/him) asks, "How do we prepare for the future?"

Mauricio’s research focuses on developing integrated models to evaluate different coastal adaptation strategies for the City of Surrey in response to flood risk and sea-level rise. It involves a lot of engagement with the city to understand their goals, concerns, measures they’re already considering, feasible timeframes, and much more.

“It’s a very iterative process,” he shares. “It includes trying to understand what Surrey’s main concerns are when a flooding event happens in the coastal areas. Traditionally, there has been a lot of focus on monetary losses and repair costs. Depending on who you ask and what your values are, you might be interested in other consequences related to climate change. There’s obviously a very real cost of living and rebuilding, but there are also huge consequences that are not monetary; people may have to evacuate, people may lose their livelihoods. There is a consequence beyond the monetary value. It has been an interesting journey trying to understand those consequences of interest and trying to come up with ways of modelling them.”

Different approaches for different scenarios

Mauricio’s work has required computational modelling, specifically running many what-if scenarios. He makes considerations such as, what if the consequences of climate change unfold more rapidly?

“Ultimately, my goal is to have a decision support tool for Surrey that integrates all of these uncertainties,” Mauricio says. “They can see, for example, if they want to protect their agricultural lands, or maybe if protect their road infrastructure, these are the pathways and sequences of projects they can take to lead them there. It can also help them understand the implications for implementing those strategies and projects.”

Mauricio’s background is in municipal engineering. He was interested in the decision-making aspects of how to prepare for the long term, particularly drawn to nature-based solutions and green infrastructure.

“The more I was reading about nature-based approaches, the more I was learning about their potential benefits, but also limitations,” Mauricio reflects. “It became clear to me that we could only do so much in terms of the very specific case of coastal adaptation in urban settings. There are a bunch of benefits and great things about nature-based solutions—we should definitely keep pushing for such approaches—but it became clear to me that with the long-term objectives for adaptation, we’re not going to be able to attain just with nature-based solutions. If we cannot rely on these techniques, then what do we do? How do we prepare for the worst of climate events?”

Mauricio’s observations met a very real world example during the 2021 Western North America heat wave. Ultimately, his background in municipal engineering, in addition to questioning the literature available to him, and the 2021 heat wave all shaped what became his PhD.

“It happened at the beginning of my program. With the nature-based solutions, such as marshes, vegetative marshes, seagrass, and oyster reefs, [we often discuss how they] could help us protect our coast during increased wave action. But when the heat wave occurred, there was a huge loss of shellfish, mollusks, around the coast because of the heat, and that coincided with low tides. It was a huge loss for intertidal biodiversity in the city which highlighted the vulnerability that some nature-based solutions could be facing in the future.”

Balancing the big picture

What stands out most about Mauricio’s work is his holistic approach. Rather than solely viewing the work through an engineering or numerical perspective, Mauricio cares about the people and consequences at the heart of it all.

“Multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches are needed to tackle complex issues like climate change,” he says. “It’s important to understand that the choices we make as a society, whether explicitly or implicitly, reflect our attitudes and values. They show what we’re willing to protect, what we’re willing to pay for that, and how we deal with climate change are intrinsically linked to our societal values and choices. It’s not just about finding a numerical answer. It’s also about what’s happening to our agricultural lands, what’s happening to our road infrastructure, and our residents at risk of drowning. It’s about what’s most important for us to protect, what we’re willing to do, and what we might be willing to accept in terms of losses.”

Beyond academics

In addition to his research, Mauricio serves as the Co-President of the Graduate Student Society in 2022-23 and continues to be a leader in the community. He was awarded the Les Lavkulich Award for Outstanding Leadership and Service in 2023.

Outside of his academics, Mauricio enjoys cinema, swing dancing, and rowing. “Coming to Vancouver has allowed me to explore activities that are more prevalent given the coastal setting. I’ve been enjoying rowing for a couple of years. It’s been interesting for me to get to know that activity and how nice it is to be out on the water with a crew!”